CAEL and CollegeAPP say 41.7 million adults plan to enroll in training or college within two years

A new CAEL and CollegeAPP report finds that 27% of U.S. adults ages 25-64, or about 41.7 million people, intend to enroll in education or training within two years. The study says cost and time remain the biggest barriers, and it argues colleges should use adult-learner intent data to recruit more proactively.

Why it matters: - The report points to a huge adult-learner market that colleges and training providers can reach now, not years from now. - The findings suggest enrollment strategy needs to shift from broad outreach to targeted support for adults who already want to return. - Cost and time barriers show that demand exists, but conversion depends on affordability, flexibility and clearer pathways.

What happened: - CAEL and CollegeAPP released a new report on adult learner intent to enroll in education or training within the next two years. - The analysis finds that 27% of adults ages 25-64 plan to enroll, equal to about 41.7 million adults nationwide. - When extended to adults ages 18 and up, the same intent rate equals more than 65 million people. - The report is titled “65 Million Reasons Why Intent Matters Most: Adding On to the Largest National Survey of Prospective Adult Students.” - The report is available at More information.

The details: - Findings come from nationwide CollegeAPP online surveys conducted between 2019 and 2025. - Survey data were weighted for adults ages 25-64. - Intent was higher among Black respondents at 43%, Hispanic respondents at 40%, female respondents at 30%, younger adults ages 25-34 at 41%, people with lower household incomes at 35%, and adults with some college but no degree at 33%. - Among adults who plan to enroll, 43% said the main reason was to gain skills relevant to a current career. - Another 21% said they want to change careers. - A separate 35% cited learning or self-improvement as the primary motivator. - Adults with a high school degree or less were most likely, at 49%, to fall into that learning or self-improvement category. - Adults with lower incomes were more likely to have enrollment intent at 35% than middle-income adults at 27% and higher-income adults at 20%. - Unemployed adults and people expecting a career transition also showed stronger intent to enroll. - Cost was the biggest barrier, cited by 81% of respondents. - Time constraints were the leading non-cost barrier, cited by 67%. - The report says demand for shorter-term, workforce-aligned pathways such as vocational and technical colleges and community colleges totals 52%. - Preference for four-year institutions stands at 48%.

Between the lines: - The report argues that adult learners should no longer be treated as one broad “nontraditional” category. - The data suggest the highest-intent groups are often the same groups facing the most barriers. - That creates a recruiting opportunity, but also a support problem around price, scheduling and navigation. - CAEL says colleges need better understanding of what motivates adults and what keeps them from enrolling. - CollegeAPP frames the findings against a shrinking traditional college-age population and a labor market that needs more upskilling. - The report also reflects the growing pull of shorter credentials and career-focused training as workers weigh return on investment.

What’s next: - The report says findings and recommendations are meant to help institutions move from reactive enrollment tactics to proactive strategies. - The analysis also covers learning modality, program preferences, changes in motivation over time and factors tied to no enrollment intent. - Institutions are likely to use the findings to target affordability, flexible scheduling, skills-based programs and wraparound support. - CAEL and CollegeAPP are positioning the report as a recruiting guide for adult learners, certificate programs and advanced degrees.

The bottom line: - Millions of adults already want more education or training; the main challenge is converting that intent into enrollment.